NFL

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The NFL Overtime Debate: Blah Blah Blah

Another year of playoffs in the NFL, another round of calls for a change in the overtime rules. Seriously, it’s all over the place . The argument for changing the rules can be presented a dozen different ways, but it boils down to this: Whoever wins the coin toss, and thus gets the ball first, can score and the other team never gets their offense on the field. Clearly that’s unfair, right?

What bothers me about this, and what should bother at least 40% of every professional football team, is that the clear implication of this is that the defense is not an equal representative of the team. If the Seahawks’ offense scores a touchdown, the Seahawks get six points, right? If the Seahawks’ defense gives up a field goal, the Seahawks are now down thee, right? I realize there can be more subtlety to the statistical considerations, but in the end I am completely unmoved by the argument that when team A wins the coin flip there’s a possibility that team B will "never get a chance of their own." They’ve got 11 men on the field, same as the other guys. How is this grossly unfair? And if it’s a little teeny bit unfair, well, the great 9th century philosopher Dennisus Learyus summed it up when he said "life sucks, get a f#*@in’ helmet!" Man up, D, and get a stop.

Note that, as a nascent Seahawks fan, I know what I’m talking about when I say a team can win the coin-flip and lose the game. Right, Matt?

23Jan2009 | John | Comments Off | Continued
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Kurt Warner’s Good Day

I realize that posting on the Cardinals - Eagles game isn’t super timely, but I’m not out to recap the action; the Cardinals won, 32-25, and they’re moving on to the Super Bowl. In the aftermath of the game, I heard a lot of commentators (particularly over at KJR 950 , sports radio in Seattle) that the Eagles failed to blitz Warner until the second half, when they applied plenty of pressure, but by then it was too late. I was surprised to hear this, particularly since I watched the game on the DVR and thus skipped past a lot of chatter. I watched all the snaps, essentially one after another with very little interruption, and what struck me at the time was that the Eagles were playing incredibly aggressive football but the Cardinals simply overcame it. On several plays, for example, Warner released the ball within, oh, call it 1 second after receving the snap. Quick plays that might "only" yield 5 or 6 yards, but when a pressure defense is hoping for an incompletion or sack and instead they’re now facing second and 4, that’s an incredible swing. Edgerrin James had several big runs, particularly in the first half, when the line didn’t so much open holes as they allowed the Eagles rushers to over-pursue the QB, leaving space for James to get into the secondary.

Mostly, though, Kurt Warner was simply a very accurate, patient quarterback on Sunday who made good decisions while, at the same time, the Eagles secondary players were performing at par level. They weren’t particularly screwing up nor were they embarassing themselves, but Warner was performing at a very high level, his receivers were performing their jobs well, and by and large the Eagles didn’t execute as well. This is quite different, though, from the Eagles failing to execute their game plan, or making dumb decisions. Pressuring the quarterback is smart against a team that passes a lot, but when two sets of 11 very talented men perform against one another, you can do a good job and still not succeed sometimes.

21Jan2009 | John | Comments Off | Continued
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Wishing Ill on the Seahawks

This post at SeaTown Sports got me thinking. Do the Seahawks want to win any games at this point? (A later post on the same blog asks the same question.) From a statistical standpoint, the Seahawks have nothing to gain from winning games. First, it lowers their draft position. “But high 1st round picks can be a albatross!” you say? Ok, but your draft position is the same in all 7 rounds. Players get snaked out from under you in the third round as much as they do in the first. Also, 2 of the 16 games each year are scheduled based on the previous year’s performance - the worse you did, the weaker (at least, historically) your competition the next year. That’s “only” two games, but you can also call that 12.5% of your schedule - 20 games in baseball and 10 in basketball, for comparision. That first post I linked to takes solace in the fact that the Seahawks are now guaranteed not to be in last place in the division; does third or fourth make a difference? I doubt it. Winning your division is important because you get a playoff spot. Coming in 2nd/3rd/4th doesn’t bear on anything at all.

Click to continue reading “Wishing Ill on the Seahawks”

19Dec2008 | John | Comments Off | Continued
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Fantasy Football: Playoffs Aftermath, Round 2

And so it ends.

I lost this week and it wasn’t close: 117-99, an 18 point victory that means he could’ve not played his quarterback (Aaron Rodgers) and still beat me by a point. The irony? Every single move that I made was a good one! Check it:

  • Peyton Manning outscored Jay Cutler, 18-10.
  • Vincent Jackson outscored the receiver he replaced, Amani Toomer, 12(!)-3.
  • My running backs: Jones-Drew (played) - 18, Williams (played) 14, Tomlinson (sat) - 12, Jacobs (out injured) - 0.
  • Pittsburgh DEF over Chicago - 10-5.
  • I even made a good last minute call - Jason Elam was reported to have a gimpy leg so I dropped him for Rob Bironas of Tennessee. Bironas 14(!!), Elam 7.

So given all of that, how could I lose? Easy, in two parts. First, my opponent was a beast, led by Michael Turner’s 24. He sat an injured Marion Barber for Stephen Jackson (how’s that for depth), who went for 18. Randy Moss for 18. Baltimore’s defense for 11. The only player who could be said to really under-perform for him was Brandon Marshall with 4.

Meanwhile, my Roddy White went for 6, Terrell Owens added 3, and Jason Whitten chipped in 4. Not absolutely atrocious (well, Owens for 3 was sad) but typically not enough to sink me. This, of course, is why my opponent was the #1 seed this year.

So there you have it, my first year of Fantasy Football. I really learned a lot. The few moves I made supported by a lot of research were either good or neutral; anything intuitive killed me. I drafted far too many players that were a year or two past their prime, hoping they’d continue to stay healthy. One of those, maybe two, can be ok, but I lived and died by the injury report, more than others in the league. And, I learned that fantasy football is a lot of fun. :) I’ll be back; thanks for reading!

15Dec2008 | John | Comments Off | Continued
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Fantasy Football: Playoffs Aftermath, Round 1

[caption id="" align="alignleft" width="140" caption="Roddy White"]Roddy White[/caption]

I’m 7-6 and the #4 seed in a six-team league. #s 1 and 2 get a bye in the first week, so technically I’m a high seed this week, getting the 6-7 Soaring Yetis, whom I beat in our last meeting in week 12. He and I are the two worst n00bs in this league, in that we’re n00bs but we’re trying to wheel and deal, make a lot of moves, etc. The other newbie did better than us, and she let Yahoo! draft her team for her and hardly manipulated her team at all. Yes, yes, there’s a lot of messages there, and I’m trying to learn from them, but I didn’t know all that at the time. Anyway, I feel mildly confident because his team has streakier players than mine - they can go off for huge numbers, but their averages are mostly lower than mine.

The good news, as I already leaked yesterday, is that I won the round. The bad news, I yet again made poor decisions that left points on the bench. Once again, the key decisions are at QB, RB, and defense.

  • I started Cutler (vs. Kansas City) over Manning (vs. Cincinnati). Fail, to the tune of 22-29.
  • I started Brandon Jacobs (vs. Philadelphia) and LaDanian Tomlinson (vs. Oakland) over DeAngelo Williams (vs. Tampa Bay and their supposedly-staunch run defense) and Maurice Jones-Drew (at Chicago).  Jacobs: 5. LT: 15. Williams: 30. Jones-Drew: 15. So, half-wash, half-25 point screw up.
  • Chicago had 9, Pittsburgh had 23. Yep, another 14 points on the bench.

So, despite winning my match (the Yetis only got 15 from all receivers and another 15 from running backs) I still left 46 points on the bench. I’d be a monster if I could just get out of my own way. This is particularly rough since I get the #1 seed next week, and he would’ve gone for 96 or so if he hadn’t had a bye. The other match that week also went 106-97, so both of them would’ve beat me.

Click to continue reading “Fantasy Football: Playoffs Aftermath, Round 1″

10Dec2008 | John | Comments Off | Continued
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Fantasy Football: Weeks 12-13

[caption id="" align="alignleft" width="177" caption="DeAngelo Williams"]DeAngelo Williams[/caption]

It’s another multi-week update this time. In case your decision tree for reading this goes something like “why would I read 500+ words when I don’t even know if he’s still got a team at this point?” I’ll cut the drama - I won my 1st round game. :) Now, how did that happen?

For starters, I made some correct decisions for once in my fantasy life. In week 12, I didn’t really make any roster moves, other than deciding who should start and who should sit. Those decisions play out in three key areas: QB, RB, and Defense.  Cutler was facing Oakland which, despite being an awful team, doesn’t actually have that bad of a secondary, so I went with Peyton Manning instead; Manning out-scored Cutler 20-6 over a tough San Diego defense. Running back is a pretty tough bunch to choose between, but out of Brandon Jacobs (at Arizona), Maurice Jones-Drew (vs. the Vikings), LaDanian Tomlinson (vs Indy) and DeAngelo Williams (at Atlanta), I went with LT and Williams. Well, Jacobs was a late scratch for his knee and Jones-Drew tied my lower back (LT), so win #2. Finally, I had Chicago at St. Louis and Pittsburgh hosting the Bengals. Normally I’d take the home team, but Bengals/Steelers is a divisional game and I just figured that the Rams were going to bad, home or away. Sure enough, the Bears D outscored Pittsburgh 20-7. That week my opponent put up 107 points (that’s a lot even if this league), but thanks to a rare swath of sound judgement I managed 119 for a solid victory.

The win put me at 6-6 and, thanks to a very bunched league, within reach of the #2 seed! It would take a victory with a *lot* of points (to cover a potential tie-breaker) and a loss by a 6-5-1 team. Conceivable, but tough.

Click to continue reading “Fantasy Football: Weeks 12-13″

9Dec2008 | John | Comments Off | Continued
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Fantasy Football: Weeks 8-11 Aftermath

Yeeeeaaah, so I have a lot of catching up to do, so let’s get to it.

  • Prior to week 8, I had offered up a couple of trade that would have upgraded a couple of my opponents but would have upgraded me even more over the multiple trades; in other words, I make 2 opponents ~5 points better, but over the deals make myself ~10 points better. Alas, neither of them took me up on the offers, so I worked the free agent list a bit. In the end, though, I merely started Brett Favre over Peyton Manning, which was a 5-point mistake on my part. Fortunately Santana Moss, Roddy White, and LaDanian Tomlinson all went over 20, leading to a 9-point win over the doormat of the leauge; final score 111-102. Sad, but true.
  • Week 9 saw me meddle around some more, sending Favre packing again (just can’t trust him) and picking up Maurice Jones-Drew. In hindsight that might seem prophetic, but he actually han’t busted out just yet. On the other hand, I had to soak up LT’s bye week so he was better than nothing. Once again, however, I failed at picking my QB, as Cutler scored 18 while Manning left his 24 on the bench. This week’s match-up pitted me against an opponent, however, whose team completely failed to show up, and I actually had a comfortable 81-70 win. From 2-5 to 4-5, maybe things aren’t so bad, right?
  • Wrong. Week 10 faced me up against the league’s best team, and he proved it with an easy 99-86 mash. It figures, even when I pick a 27-point QB I manage to leave Cutler’s 35 on the bench. I had also dropped Maurice Jones-Drew that week, when he then proceeded to trash the Lions for 27. Add in two receivers who combined for 1 point , and, well, yeah - I lost. One interesting personnel note: Jason Witten was dropped, thanks to poor Cowboys quarterbacking and a team owner’s need to tinker with a few bye weeks. Frankly, a tight end on a bye is no worse than Anthony Fasano, who I’ve been starting the entire season. I scoop him up for the future. At any rate, my record is 4-6 and things are looking grim.

Click to continue reading “Fantasy Football: Weeks 8-11 Aftermath”

19Nov2008 | John | Comments Off | Continued
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Fantasy Football: Week 7 Aftermath and Making Trades

I’m catching up with this, any anyway I got creamed. 63 points in a league where about half the teams cross the century mark each week - yep, ker smackers. What happened?

Nothing happened, that’s what. Barring a bye or two I was starting what should be a 1st string team:

  • QB - Peyton Manning
  • WR - Plaxico Burress
  • WR - Santana Moss
  • WR - Marvin Harrison
  • RB - LaDanian Tomlinson
  • RB - Brandon Jacobs
  • TE - Anthony Fasano
  • K - Nate Kaeding
  • DEF -Tampa Bay

Click to continue reading “Fantasy Football: Week 7 Aftermath and Making Trades”

27Oct2008 | John | Comments Off | Continued
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Fantasy Football: Week 6 Aftermath

Really, Peyton Manning? Really, Marvin Harrison? I lost by more than you would’ve covered, so thanks for that. :p Yes, the Ceiling Cats are down to 2-4, getting pasted 108-91. Let’s take a look, shall we?

I’m going to stop trying to be clever, because clearly I’m not very good at it. At least, so far I’ve been terrible. This week’s mayhem? Sensing a tough game with the Ravens, I benched the ’til-now inconsistent Peyton Manning and the all-season weak Marvin Harrison in favor of Jay Cutler and Santana Moss. Marshawn Lynch had a bye, so he was out as well, but I’ve actually felt ok about Brandon Jacobs, and I’ve got to resign myself to the fact that LaDanian Tomlinson is whut brung me, so I gotta dance wit’ ‘im. That makes the lineup for this week:

  • QB - Jay Cutler
  • WR - Terrell Owens
  • WR - Santana Moss
  • WR - Roddy White
  • RB - LaDanian Tomlinson
  • RB - Brandon Jacobs
  • TE - Anthony Fasano
  • K - Nate Kaeding
  • DEF - Philadelphia

Click to continue reading “Fantasy Football: Week 6 Aftermath”

15Oct2008 | John | Comments Off | Continued
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Fantasy Football: Week 5 Aftermath

[caption id="" align="alignleft" width="138" caption="Peyton was back to form."]Peyton was back to form.[/caption]

Let me paint a picture for you. Yahoo! projected that this week’s game would be a 96-96 tie. Yes, the projections are often wrong, but there’s a consistency in the wrongness that you start to get a feel for after awhile. So no, it wasn’t going to be 96-96, but a pretty high-scoring affair seemed to be in order given the small league with teams full of stars. So, would me losing 69-54 surprise you? Let’s recap, shall we?

Moves during the week were minimal. I finally gave up on Kellen Winslow, if for no other reason than the QB throwing to him has been so inconsistent. I don’t know a thing about Anthony Fasano of Miami, but he was the highest-scoring tight end in free agency, so I picked him up. My opponent, The Ghost of Bill Mundy (inside joke at my company), grew worried about Aaron Rogers’ injury and replaced his backup, Ben Roethlisberger, with Trent Edwards of Buffalo. I had a feeling that Peyton Manning was going to get healthy against the Texans, as would Marvin Harrison, so into the line-up they went. And so the stage was set. My team:

  • QB - Peyton Manning
  • WR - Terrell Owens
  • WR - Santana Moss
  • WR - Marvin Harrison
  • RB - Marshawn Lynch
  • RB - LaDanian Tomlinson
  • TE - Anthony Fasano
  • K - Nate Kaeding
  • DEF - Philadelphia

Click to continue reading “Fantasy Football: Week 5 Aftermath”

7Oct2008 | John | Comments Off | Continued
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